Home Values Fall

Housing Prices Continue To Fall…Is The Bottom In Sight?

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Everyone wants the glory days to return…when they had hundreds of thousands of dollars of paper equity in their homes. But does anyone think that will ever happen again? Perhaps, only the people who predict the resurgence of the dot.com boom years. So, if you thought the housing crisis was over, it’s not quite finished yet.

Despite four years of falling prices and recent signs that they were finally bottoming out, homes are expected to lose still more value in many metro areas over the next year. Many say at least until 2013.

The simply, undeniable fact is we are in a long term housing bust. Terms like the ‘L Shaped Recovery’ are being tossed around. Some expect that the housing market and housing values will bounce along a very protracted horizontal line for 10+ years. In other words, no significant appreciation or depreciation. There is some validity to this viewpoint.

There is simply no way that the sheer volume of bank controlled ‘shadow inventory’ combined with….. 1) Changing attitudes about owning a home vs being a renter 2) Demographic shifts 3) Stricter lending standards 4) High unemployment 5) Over supply of housing stock…… wont result in more price erosion in most major cities. “When I drive past all the vacant homes, it’s hard to believe we are anywhere near a bottom.”, says Tim Harris of Harris Real Estate University.

That’s the conclusion of economists who have been reducing their estimates for home prices as the outlook for the economic recovery has darkened. The number of homes for sale or headed for foreclosure is so high that they think prices will be even lower by next July.

Because housing is such an important engine of the economy, lower prices could dim the recovery. When home values fall and people have less equity, they tend to cut back on spending. And as prices decline, potential homebuyers stay on the sidelines, slowing sales even more.

The average home price in the Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller index of 20 big U.S. cities is forecast to drop nearly 2 percent this year from a year earlier, according to the average estimate of more than 100 economists polled this month by MacroMarkets LLC.

That’s more pessimistic than in May, when the consensus was for prices to be nearly flat. Other, more bearish analysts think prices will sink 10 percent or more.

Price drops of more than 10 percent are expected in the Phoenix, Miami and Las Vegas areas over the next year, according to Moody’s Analytics. Those areas have already been scorched by 50 percent declines in home values.

The average home price in the Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller index of 20 big U.S. cities is forecast to drop nearly 2 percent this year from a year earlier, according to the average estimate of more than 100 economists polled this month by MacroMarkets LLC.

That’s more pessimistic than in May, when the consensus was for prices to be nearly flat. Other, more bearish analysts think prices will sink 10 percent or more.

Price drops of more than 10 percent are expected in the Phoenix, Miami and Las Vegas areas over the next year, according to Moody’s Analytics. Those areas have already been scorched by 50 percent declines in home values.

Moody’s predicts that other areas — New York, Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Denver, Detroit, Cleveland, Minneapolis, Tampa, Fla.; and Washington D.C. — will see declines of 2 to 8 percent by next July.

Nationally, about 7.1 million homeowners — more than 13 percent of households with a mortgage — have either missed at least one payment or are in foreclosure, according to data provider Lender Processing Services Inc.

That is an amazing number. Here are a few more stats for you. Its estimated that 50% of all homes are owned…no mortgage. Of the 50% with a loan…50% of THOSE are upside down. Or, 25% of all home owners are upside down in their home.

Short Sales | HAFA | HAUP | Loan Modifications | Stop Foreclosure | Bank Owned | FSBO | Expired Listings

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